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A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic

Della Rossa, Fabio; Salzano, Davide; Di Meglio, Anna; De Lellis, Francesco; Coraggio, Marco; Calabrese, Carmela; Guarino, Agostino; Cardona-Rivera, Ricardo; De Lellis, Pietro; Liuzza, Davide; ...
Open Access
Abstract
<p>Abstract</p> <p>The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effect...
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Funded by
EC| COSY-BIO
Project
COSY-BIO
Control Engineering of Biological Systems for Reliable Synthetic Biology Applications
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 766840
  • Funding stream: H2020
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