publication . Article . 2010

To the Abyss and Beyond

Rusek, Antonin;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2010
  • Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
  • Country: Poland
Abstract. Life cycle hypothesis and Solow neo-classical growth concepts are used to construct and estimate VAR models of USA’s GDP dynamics. Conditional forecasts are then made for those two variables for the next two years, using different assumptions regarding the future dynamics of the household’s net worth. Results show that under all assumptions the US GDP growth GDP remains sluggish. The historical peak GDP level (achieved in Q2 from 2008) is not achieved by the Ql of 2011.
free text keywords: Life Cycle Hypothesis, GDP growth, VAR models, conditional forecasts
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