publication . Research . 2015

Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

Barreca, Alan I.; Deschenes, Olivier; Guldi, Melanie;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2015
  • Publisher: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn
Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the n...
free text keywords: I12, J13, Q54, fertility, birth rates, seasonality, birth weight, temperature, climate change, ddc:330
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