How far can forecasting models forecast? Forecast content horizons for some important macroeconomic variables

Research English OPEN
Galbraith, John W.; Tkacz, Greg;
  • Publisher: Bank of Canada Ottawa
  • Subject: C53 | Econometric and statistical methods | Business fluctuations and cycles | Konjunkturforschung | Wirtschaftsprognose | Zeit | Statistische Methode
    • ddc: ddc:330

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or explorator... View more
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