publication . Article . 2017

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Dec 2017 Journal: Earth System Dynamics (issn: 2190-4979, eissn: 2190-4987, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Copernicus Publications
Abstract
Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the i...
Subjects
free text keywords: Q, QE500-639.5, land use, Dynamic and structural geology, Science, QE1-996.5, Amazon forests, Geology, fire risk, climate change
Funded by
EC| HESFIRE
Project
HESFIRE
Drivers and projections of global fire activity and intensity under future climate and societal changes.
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 659969
  • Funding stream: H2020 | MSCA-IF-EF-RI
,
FCT| UID/AGR/00239/2013
Project
UID/AGR/00239/2013
Forest Research Centre
  • Funder: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT)
  • Project Code: 147339
  • Funding stream: 5876
64 references, page 1 of 5

Alencar, A., Nepstad, D., and Diaz, M. C. V.: Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: area burned and committed carbon emissions, Earth Interact., 10, 1- 17, 2006.

Alencar, A. A., Solórzano, L. A., and Nepstad, D. C.: Modeling forest understory fires in an eastern Amazonian landscape, Ecol. Appl., 14, 139-149, 2004.

Alencar, A. A., Brando, P. M., Asner, G. P., and Putz, F. E.: Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime, Ecol. Appl., 25, 1493-1505, https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1528.1, 2015.

Aragão, L. E. O. C., Malhi, Y., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Saatchi, S., Anderson, L. O., and Shimabukuro, Y. E.: Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028946, 2007.

Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 110, G02014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000042/full, 2005.

Asner, G. P., Knapp, D. E., Broadbent, E. N., Oliveira, P. J., Keller, M., and Silva, J. N.: Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 310, 480-482, 2005.

Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Brando, P. M., Curran, L. M., Portela, O., de Carvalho, O., and Lefebvre, P.: Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia, Global Change Biol., 14, 2276-2287, 2008.

Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Curran, L. M., Brando, P. M., Portela, O., Guilherme, P., Reuning-Scherer, J. D., and de Carvalho, O.: Size, species, and fire behavior predict tree and liana mortality from experimental burns in the Brazilian Amazon, For. Ecol. Manag., 261, 68-77, 2011.

Balch, J. K., Brando, P. M., Nepstad, D. C., Coe, M. T., Silvério, D., Massad, T. J., Davidson, E. A., Lefebvre, P., Oliveira-Santos, C., Rocha, W., Cury, R. T. S., Parsons, A., and Carvalho, K. S.: The Susceptibility of Southeastern Amazon Forests to Fire: Insights from a Large-Scale Burn Experiment, BioScience, 65, 893-905, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biv106, 2015.

Barlow, J. and Peres, C. A.: Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B-Biol. Sci., 363, 1787-1794, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0013, 2008. [OpenAIRE]

Barlow, J., Lennox, G. D., Ferreira, J., Berenguer, E., Lees, A. C., Nally, R. M., Thomson, J. R., Ferraz, S. F. de B., Louzada, J., Oliveira, V. H. F., Parry, L., Ribeiro de Castro Solar, R., Vieira, I. C. G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Begotti, R. A., Braga, R. F., Cardoso, T. M., Jr, R. C. de O., Souza Jr, C. M., Moura, N. G., Nunes, S. S., Siqueira, J. V., Pardini, R., Silveira, J. M., Vazde-Mello, F. Z., Veiga, R. C. S., Venturieri, A., and Gardner, T. A.: Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation, Nature, 535, 144-147, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18326, 2016. [OpenAIRE]

Boisier, J. P., Ciais, P., Ducharne, A., and Guimberteau, M.: Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 656-660, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., Bogaert, E. V., Arino, O., Kalogirou, V., and Perez, J. R.: GLOBCOVER 2009-Products Description and Validation Report, available at: http://www.citeulike.org/group/ 15400/article/12770349 (last access: 25 February 2014), 2011.

Brando, P. M., Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Morton, D. C., Putz, F. E., Coe, M. T., Silverio, D., Macedo, M. N., Davidson, E. A., Nobrega, C. C., Alencar, A., and Soares-Filho, B. S.: Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 6347-6352, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305499111, 2014. [OpenAIRE]

Brienen, R. J. W., Phillips, O. L., Feldpausch, T. R., Gloor, E., Baker, T. R., Lloyd, J., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., MonteagudoMendoza, A., Malhi, Y., Lewis, S. L., and Martinez, R. V.: Longterm decline of the Amazon carbon sink, Nature, 519, 344-348, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

64 references, page 1 of 5
Abstract
Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the i...
Subjects
free text keywords: Q, QE500-639.5, land use, Dynamic and structural geology, Science, QE1-996.5, Amazon forests, Geology, fire risk, climate change
Funded by
EC| HESFIRE
Project
HESFIRE
Drivers and projections of global fire activity and intensity under future climate and societal changes.
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 659969
  • Funding stream: H2020 | MSCA-IF-EF-RI
,
FCT| UID/AGR/00239/2013
Project
UID/AGR/00239/2013
Forest Research Centre
  • Funder: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT)
  • Project Code: 147339
  • Funding stream: 5876
64 references, page 1 of 5

Alencar, A., Nepstad, D., and Diaz, M. C. V.: Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: area burned and committed carbon emissions, Earth Interact., 10, 1- 17, 2006.

Alencar, A. A., Solórzano, L. A., and Nepstad, D. C.: Modeling forest understory fires in an eastern Amazonian landscape, Ecol. Appl., 14, 139-149, 2004.

Alencar, A. A., Brando, P. M., Asner, G. P., and Putz, F. E.: Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime, Ecol. Appl., 25, 1493-1505, https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1528.1, 2015.

Aragão, L. E. O. C., Malhi, Y., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Saatchi, S., Anderson, L. O., and Shimabukuro, Y. E.: Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028946, 2007.

Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 110, G02014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000042/full, 2005.

Asner, G. P., Knapp, D. E., Broadbent, E. N., Oliveira, P. J., Keller, M., and Silva, J. N.: Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 310, 480-482, 2005.

Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Brando, P. M., Curran, L. M., Portela, O., de Carvalho, O., and Lefebvre, P.: Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia, Global Change Biol., 14, 2276-2287, 2008.

Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Curran, L. M., Brando, P. M., Portela, O., Guilherme, P., Reuning-Scherer, J. D., and de Carvalho, O.: Size, species, and fire behavior predict tree and liana mortality from experimental burns in the Brazilian Amazon, For. Ecol. Manag., 261, 68-77, 2011.

Balch, J. K., Brando, P. M., Nepstad, D. C., Coe, M. T., Silvério, D., Massad, T. J., Davidson, E. A., Lefebvre, P., Oliveira-Santos, C., Rocha, W., Cury, R. T. S., Parsons, A., and Carvalho, K. S.: The Susceptibility of Southeastern Amazon Forests to Fire: Insights from a Large-Scale Burn Experiment, BioScience, 65, 893-905, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biv106, 2015.

Barlow, J. and Peres, C. A.: Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B-Biol. Sci., 363, 1787-1794, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0013, 2008. [OpenAIRE]

Barlow, J., Lennox, G. D., Ferreira, J., Berenguer, E., Lees, A. C., Nally, R. M., Thomson, J. R., Ferraz, S. F. de B., Louzada, J., Oliveira, V. H. F., Parry, L., Ribeiro de Castro Solar, R., Vieira, I. C. G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Begotti, R. A., Braga, R. F., Cardoso, T. M., Jr, R. C. de O., Souza Jr, C. M., Moura, N. G., Nunes, S. S., Siqueira, J. V., Pardini, R., Silveira, J. M., Vazde-Mello, F. Z., Veiga, R. C. S., Venturieri, A., and Gardner, T. A.: Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation, Nature, 535, 144-147, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18326, 2016. [OpenAIRE]

Boisier, J. P., Ciais, P., Ducharne, A., and Guimberteau, M.: Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 656-660, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., Bogaert, E. V., Arino, O., Kalogirou, V., and Perez, J. R.: GLOBCOVER 2009-Products Description and Validation Report, available at: http://www.citeulike.org/group/ 15400/article/12770349 (last access: 25 February 2014), 2011.

Brando, P. M., Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Morton, D. C., Putz, F. E., Coe, M. T., Silverio, D., Macedo, M. N., Davidson, E. A., Nobrega, C. C., Alencar, A., and Soares-Filho, B. S.: Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 6347-6352, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305499111, 2014. [OpenAIRE]

Brienen, R. J. W., Phillips, O. L., Feldpausch, T. R., Gloor, E., Baker, T. R., Lloyd, J., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., MonteagudoMendoza, A., Malhi, Y., Lewis, S. L., and Martinez, R. V.: Longterm decline of the Amazon carbon sink, Nature, 519, 344-348, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

64 references, page 1 of 5
Powered by OpenAIRE Open Research Graph
Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue
publication . Article . 2017

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem;