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Bachelor thesis . 2022

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Covid andmete põhjal SIR mudeli koostamine

Name: Covid andmete põhjal SIR mudeli koostamine
Creator: Sutt, Armand
Keywords: logistic-growth, pandeemiad, SIR-model, logistiline kasv, pandemics

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Bachelor thesis 01 Jan 2022 Estonia Estonian

Authors: Sutt, Armand;

handle: 10062/83937

Covid andmete põhjal SIR mudeli koostamine

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Abstract

Covid-19 puhangust inspireerituna sooviti uurida SIR-mudeli (nakatumata, nakatunud, tervenenud) kasutamist Covid-19 ja teiste viirushaiguste levikul. Selleks loodi kõigepealt lihtsakoeline diskreetse ajaga mudel, mille alusel inimestele juhuslikult kindel kontakte määratakse ja nad jäävad fikseeritud tõenäosusega haigeks. Haigusperioodi jooksul inimesed võivad olla kõigepealt nakkusohutud ja seejärel muutuvad nad nakkusohtlikuks. Seejärel muudetakse nad tervenenudeks. Pärast lihtsama mudeli koostamist taandati mudel kõigepealt neljale muutujale, et saaks suuremamahulisi populatsioone arvutis kergemini simuleerida. Sellest omakorda arendati välja mudelid, millega sai kirjeldada vanuse-/riskigruppide erinevuseid ja omavahelise suhtluse mõju nakkusele. Kirjeldatakse ka mudeleid, mis kasutavad pidevat aega. Töö viimane osa toob näiteid, kus mudelit rakendatakse.

Country

Estonia

Related Organizations

University of Tartu
Estonia

Keywords

logistic-growth, pandeemiad, SIR-model, logistiline kasv, pandemics

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Green

Related to Research communities

Corona Virus Disease