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Bachelor thesis . 2022
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Covid andmete põhjal SIR mudeli koostamine

Authors: Sutt, Armand;

Covid andmete põhjal SIR mudeli koostamine

Abstract

Covid-19 puhangust inspireerituna sooviti uurida SIR-mudeli (nakatumata, nakatunud, tervenenud) kasutamist Covid-19 ja teiste viirushaiguste levikul. Selleks loodi kõigepealt lihtsakoeline diskreetse ajaga mudel, mille alusel inimestele juhuslikult kindel kontakte määratakse ja nad jäävad fikseeritud tõenäosusega haigeks. Haigusperioodi jooksul inimesed võivad olla kõigepealt nakkusohutud ja seejärel muutuvad nad nakkusohtlikuks. Seejärel muudetakse nad tervenenudeks. Pärast lihtsama mudeli koostamist taandati mudel kõigepealt neljale muutujale, et saaks suuremamahulisi populatsioone arvutis kergemini simuleerida. Sellest omakorda arendati välja mudelid, millega sai kirjeldada vanuse-/riskigruppide erinevuseid ja omavahelise suhtluse mõju nakkusele. Kirjeldatakse ka mudeleid, mis kasutavad pidevat aega. Töö viimane osa toob näiteid, kus mudelit rakendatakse.

Country
Estonia
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Keywords

logistic-growth, pandeemiad, SIR-model, logistiline kasv, pandemics

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
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