publication . Article . 2015

Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

ter Steege, H.; et al., [Unknown]; Duivenvoorden, J.F.;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2015
Abstract
Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical t...
Funded by
NSF| Doctoral Dissertation Research: Multi-Scale Tree Diversity Conservation Implementation in the Western Amazon Based on Remote Sensing and Tree Inventory Data
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0726797
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences | Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
,
NSF| Understanding the Spatial Patterns of Diversity of Montane Forests in Northern Bolivia
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0743457
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
,
NSF| Botanical Inventory of the Madidi Region, Bolivia
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0101775
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
,
NSF| Collaborative Research: Ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity of the central Guiana Shield
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0918591
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
82 references, page 1 of 6

1. B. S. Soares-Filho, D. C. Nepstad, L. M. Curran, E. Voll, G. C. Cerqueira, R. A. Garcia, C. A. Ramos, A. McDonald, P. Lefebvre, P. Schlesinger, Eds., LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, TN, 2013); http://daac.ornl.gov//LBA/guides/LC14_Amazon_Scenarios.html

2. B. S. Soares-Filho, D. C. Nepstad, L. M. Curran, G. C. Cerqueira, R. A. Garcia, C. A. Ramos, E. Voll, A. McDonald, P. Lefebvre, P. Schlesinger, Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440, 520-523 (2006).

3. P. M. Fearnside, Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: History, rates, and consequences. Conserv. Biol. 19, 680-688 (2005).

4. N. J. H. Smith, P. Alvim, A. Homma, I. Falesi, A. Serrão, Environmental impacts of resource exploitation in Amazonia. Glob. Environ. Change 1, 313-320 (1991).

5. E. A. Davidson, A. C. de Araújo, P. Artaxo, J. K. Balch, I. F. Brown, M. M. C. Bustamante, M. T. Coe, R. S. DeFries, M. Keller, M. Longo, J. W. Munger, W. Schroeder, B. S. Soares-Filho, C. M. Souza, S. C. Wofsy, The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481, 321-328 (2012).

6. L. E. O. C. Aragão, Y. Malhi, R. M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Saatchi, L. O. Anderson, Y. E. Shimabukuro, Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07701 (2007).

7. Y. Malhi, J. T. Roberts, R. A. Betts, T. J. Killeen, W. Li, C. A. Nobre, Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319, 169-172 (2008).

8. D. Nepstad, D. McGrath, C. Stickler, A. Alencar, A. Azevedo, B. Swette, T. Bezerra, M. DiGiano, J. Shimada, R. Seroa da Motta, E. Armijo, L. Castello, P. Brando, M. C. Hansen, M. McGrath-Horn, O. Carvalho, L. Hess, Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science 344, 1118-1123 (2014).

9. C. D'Almeida, C. J. Vörösmarty, G. C. Hurtt, J. A. Marengo, S. L. Dingman, B. D. Keim, The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: A review on scale and resolution. Int. J. Climatol. 27, 633-647 (2007).

10. L. E. O. C. Aragão, Environmental science: The rainforest's water pump. Nature 489, 217-218 (2012).

11. D. V. Spracklen, S. R. Arnold, C. M. Taylor, Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282-285 (2012).

12. K. J. Feeley, M. R. Silman, Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 12382-12387 (2009). [OpenAIRE]

13. S. P. Hubbell, F. He, R. Condit, L. Borda-de-Água, J. Kellner, H. ter Steege, How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 11498-11504 (2008). [OpenAIRE]

15. M. Hansen, P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. Justice, J. R. G. Townshend, High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850-853 (2013).

16. IUCN, IUCN Red List (2014); http://cmsdocs.s3.amazonaws.com/summarystats/2014_3_Summary_ Stats_Page_Documents/2014_3_RL_Stats_Table_3b.pdf

82 references, page 1 of 6
Abstract
Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical t...
Funded by
NSF| Doctoral Dissertation Research: Multi-Scale Tree Diversity Conservation Implementation in the Western Amazon Based on Remote Sensing and Tree Inventory Data
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0726797
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences | Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
,
NSF| Understanding the Spatial Patterns of Diversity of Montane Forests in Northern Bolivia
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0743457
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
,
NSF| Botanical Inventory of the Madidi Region, Bolivia
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0101775
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
,
NSF| Collaborative Research: Ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity of the central Guiana Shield
Project
  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 0918591
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Biological Sciences | Division of Environmental Biology
82 references, page 1 of 6

1. B. S. Soares-Filho, D. C. Nepstad, L. M. Curran, E. Voll, G. C. Cerqueira, R. A. Garcia, C. A. Ramos, A. McDonald, P. Lefebvre, P. Schlesinger, Eds., LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, TN, 2013); http://daac.ornl.gov//LBA/guides/LC14_Amazon_Scenarios.html

2. B. S. Soares-Filho, D. C. Nepstad, L. M. Curran, G. C. Cerqueira, R. A. Garcia, C. A. Ramos, E. Voll, A. McDonald, P. Lefebvre, P. Schlesinger, Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440, 520-523 (2006).

3. P. M. Fearnside, Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: History, rates, and consequences. Conserv. Biol. 19, 680-688 (2005).

4. N. J. H. Smith, P. Alvim, A. Homma, I. Falesi, A. Serrão, Environmental impacts of resource exploitation in Amazonia. Glob. Environ. Change 1, 313-320 (1991).

5. E. A. Davidson, A. C. de Araújo, P. Artaxo, J. K. Balch, I. F. Brown, M. M. C. Bustamante, M. T. Coe, R. S. DeFries, M. Keller, M. Longo, J. W. Munger, W. Schroeder, B. S. Soares-Filho, C. M. Souza, S. C. Wofsy, The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481, 321-328 (2012).

6. L. E. O. C. Aragão, Y. Malhi, R. M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Saatchi, L. O. Anderson, Y. E. Shimabukuro, Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07701 (2007).

7. Y. Malhi, J. T. Roberts, R. A. Betts, T. J. Killeen, W. Li, C. A. Nobre, Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319, 169-172 (2008).

8. D. Nepstad, D. McGrath, C. Stickler, A. Alencar, A. Azevedo, B. Swette, T. Bezerra, M. DiGiano, J. Shimada, R. Seroa da Motta, E. Armijo, L. Castello, P. Brando, M. C. Hansen, M. McGrath-Horn, O. Carvalho, L. Hess, Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science 344, 1118-1123 (2014).

9. C. D'Almeida, C. J. Vörösmarty, G. C. Hurtt, J. A. Marengo, S. L. Dingman, B. D. Keim, The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: A review on scale and resolution. Int. J. Climatol. 27, 633-647 (2007).

10. L. E. O. C. Aragão, Environmental science: The rainforest's water pump. Nature 489, 217-218 (2012).

11. D. V. Spracklen, S. R. Arnold, C. M. Taylor, Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282-285 (2012).

12. K. J. Feeley, M. R. Silman, Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 12382-12387 (2009). [OpenAIRE]

13. S. P. Hubbell, F. He, R. Condit, L. Borda-de-Água, J. Kellner, H. ter Steege, How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 11498-11504 (2008). [OpenAIRE]

15. M. Hansen, P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. Justice, J. R. G. Townshend, High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850-853 (2013).

16. IUCN, IUCN Red List (2014); http://cmsdocs.s3.amazonaws.com/summarystats/2014_3_Summary_ Stats_Page_Documents/2014_3_RL_Stats_Table_3b.pdf

82 references, page 1 of 6
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