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Measuring disruptiveness and continuity of research by using the Disruption Index (DI) – A Bayesian statistical approach

Name: Measuring disruptiveness and continuity of research by using the Disruption Index (DI) – A Bayesian statistical approach
Keywords: Bibliometric indicator, Bayesian statistical approach, Disruption index, 11315 Center for Higher Education and Science Studies (CHESS), 370 Education

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Conference object 19 May 2023Embargo end date: 29 Sep 2023 Switzerland Publisher:International Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation IndicatorsJournal:27th International Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators (STI 2023)

Authors: Mutz, Rüdiger; Bornmann, Lutz;

doi: 10.55835/644117475a1411a1cb49918d , 10.5167/uzh-270976

Measuring disruptiveness and continuity of research by using the Disruption Index (DI) – A Bayesian statistical approach

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Abstract

L. Wu, Wang, and Evans (2019) introduced the disruption index (DI) which has been designed to capture disruptiveness of individual publications based on dynamic citation networks of publications. In this study, we propose a statistical modelling approach to tackle open questions with the DI: (1) how to consider uncertainty in the calculation of DI values, (2) how to aggregate DI values for paper sets, (3) how to predict DI values using covariates, and (4) how to unambiguously classify papers into either disruptive or not disruptive. A Bayesian multilevel logistic approach is suggested that extends an approach of Figueiredo and Andrade (2019). A reanalysis of sample data from Bornmann and Tekles (2021) and Bittmann, Tekles, and Bornmann (2022) shows that the Bayesian approach is helpful in tackling the open questions. For example, the modelling approach is able to predict disruptive papers (milestone papers in physics) in a good way.

Country

Switzerland

Related Organizations

University of Zurich
Switzerland

Keywords

Bibliometric indicator, Bayesian statistical approach, Disruption index, 11315 Center for Higher Education and Science Studies (CHESS), 370 Education

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	0
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Average
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Average
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Average

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