<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>
Mitigation pathways allowing for temperature overshoot often ignore the related climate and macroeconomic impacts. Net-zero pathways with limited overshoot could reduce low-probability high-consequence risks and economic loss. Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.
330, 550, Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands, Climate-change policy, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE RISK, HEAT EXTREMES, MITIGATION, RIGHT TAIL, Economic conditions, Taverne, Cost analysis, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Nature-society relations, Integrated approach, Climate-change impacts, Climate-change mitigation, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
330, 550, Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands, Climate-change policy, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE RISK, HEAT EXTREMES, MITIGATION, RIGHT TAIL, Economic conditions, Taverne, Cost analysis, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Nature-society relations, Integrated approach, Climate-change impacts, Climate-change mitigation, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 53 | |
popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% |