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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao https://doi.org/10.1...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
https://doi.org/10.1109/dasc62...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Fragmentation Modeling and Risk Assessment for Low Earth Orbits

Authors: Lorenzo Ostrogovich; Giorgio Isoletta; Nicola Cimmino; Roberto Opromolla; Giancarmine Fasano;

Fragmentation Modeling and Risk Assessment for Low Earth Orbits

Abstract

The growing number of Resident Space Objects, driven by advancements in technology and reduced launch costs, has increased the probability of in-orbit collisions, potentially producing space debris and thus posing significant sustainability challenges to the space environment. With over 30,000 catalogued objects currently in orbit, including recent mega-constellations like Starlink and OneWeb, the need for effective Space Situational Awareness programs is critical. In this context, this paper proposes an integrated architecture to model in-orbit fragmentation events (i.e., collisions and explosions), which represent a major source of space debris, and to estimate the resulting risk to space assets of interest in Low-Earth Orbit. The architecture comprises two main modules: one implementing the NASA Standard Breakup Model to determine the number and the characteristics of the fragments generated by the breakup event, and the other implementing the Uncertainty-aware Cube algorithm to compute collision rates while accounting for positional uncertainties. The proposed system supports several SSA functions, such as the estimation of the time evolution of the spatial density and the evaluation of the conjunction risk induced by generated debris cloud to given assets, such as those belonging to a mega-constellation. The applicability of the proposed architecture is demonstrated through realistic Low Earth Orbit scenarios, emphasizing the impact of fragmentation events on mega-constellations under different environmental conditions.

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Keywords

Collision risk assessment, Mega-constellation, Space surveillance and tracking, Uncertainty evaluation, Mega-constellation, Space surveillance and tracking, Collision risk assessment, Uncertainty evaluation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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