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Транспортно-экономический баланс и его роль в координации транспортного планирования в условиях цифровой трансформации

Transport and Economic Balance and Its Role in the Coordination of Transport Planning during the Digitalization Era
Authors: Evseev, O.V.; Murashov, V.V.; Zaboev, A.I.; Zemtsov, A.A.; Buslov, V.N.; Shubin, Al.V.; Schirov, A.A.; +3 Authors

Транспортно-экономический баланс и его роль в координации транспортного планирования в условиях цифровой трансформации

Abstract

Планирование и прогнозирование перевозок с использованием экономико-математического инструментария транспортно-экономического баланса является важной научной и прикладной задачей, направленной на совершенствование транспортно-экономических связей с учетом соотношения между размерами производства и потребления товаров и потребности в объемах транспортной работы для их ввоза или вывоза. Математическая модель транспортно-экономического баланса, включающая основные балансовые уравнения, задает его структуру и правила построения. Транспортно-экономический баланс Российской Федерации, описывает фактические и прогнозные объемы и корреспонденции грузовых перевозок между регионами страны железнодорожным, автомобильным, внутренним водным и морским транспортом по родам грузов. Баланс фактических грузопотоков построен за период с 2007 по 2016 годы на основе статистики промышленности, торговли, строительства, сельского хозяйства, топливно-энергетического комплекса, экспорта и импорта, а также транспортной статистики железнодорожного, морского, внутреннего водного и автомобильного транспорта. Прогноз грузовой базы и грузопотоков строится на период до 2030 года с использованием сценарных условий и прогнозных оценок Минэкономразвития России, а также индексов развития экономики регионов с учетом технологических связей грузоемких производств. Баланс позволяет рассчитывать и обосновывать прогнозные нагрузки на инфраструктуру с учетом различных вариантов ее реконструкции и развития, изменения маршрутов, оптимально распределять прогнозные потоки по сети с учетом прогнозируемых характеристик пропускной способности, скоростей движения и предсказуемости времени доставки, загрузки элементов сети и перераспределения узких мест. Econometrics tools in framework of Transport and Economic Balance (TEB) for transport planning and forecasting are aimed at improving transport links and transport connectivity via accounting the ratio between the volume of production and consumption of goods and the demand for transport services for their import and export. The TEB’s econometrics model includes the basic balance equations that define its structure and formation rules. The transport and economic balance of the Russian Federation aggregate the actual and forecast freight flows and their correspondence between the regions of the country (OD-matrix) by rail, road, inland water and maritime transport by type of commodities. The balance of actual freight traffic built for 2007-2016 based on statistics for industrial production, domestic and external trade, construction, agriculture and energy, as well as statistics for rail, maritime, inland water and road transport. The forecast of the cargo base and freight traffic is built for the period up to 2030 using the scenarios and forecast estimations by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, as well as the indices of regional economic development, considering the technological and transport connectivity of main cargo generating industries. The TEB will make it possible to calculate and substantiate the predicted impacts on the infrastructure considering various options for its reconstruction and development, changing routes, optimally distribute the forecasted flows over the network, considering the predicted characteristics of throughput, speeds and predictability of delivery time, workload of transport network and elimination of bottlenecks.

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Keywords

Big Data, прогнозирование, Transport Planning, грузопотоки, Transport, Transport and Economic Connectivity, транспортное планирование, транспорт, транспортные модели, транспортная статистика, Transport Policy, Transport Models, транспортная политика, Transport Statistics, транспортно-экономические связи, Transport and Economic Balance, транспортно-экономический баланс, Freight Flows, Большие данные, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold