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AbstractWe model the growth of scientific literature related to COVID-19 and forecast the expected growth from 1 June 2021. Considering the significant scientific and financial efforts made by the research community to find solutions to end the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented volume of scientific outputs is being produced. This questions the capacity of scientists, politicians and citizens to maintain infrastructure, digest content and take scientifically informed decisions. A crucial aspect is to make predictions to prepare for such a large corpus of scientific literature. Here we base our predictions on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models using the Dimensions database. This source has the particularity of including in the metadata information on the date in which papers were indexed. We present global predictions, plus predictions in three specific settings: by type of access (Open Access), by domain-specific repository (SSRN and MedRxiv) and by several research fields. We conclude by discussing our findings.
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Communication, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Publishing, 050, COVID-19, Dimensions, Scientific publications, Open access, Article, Scientific publication, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Growth of science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Publishing, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Communication
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Communication, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Publishing, 050, COVID-19, Dimensions, Scientific publications, Open access, Article, Scientific publication, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Growth of science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Publishing, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Library and Information Science|Scholarly Communication
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 25 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
| views | 7 | |
| downloads | 3 |

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