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Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Preprint 12 Aug 2025Embargo end date: 01 Jan 2024 English Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLCJournal:Annals of Operations Research, volume 352, pages 105-120 (issn: 0254-5330, eissn: 1572-9338, Copyright policy )
Authors: László Csató; Dóra Gréta Petróczy;

doi: 10.1007/s10479-025-06780-9 , 10.48550/arxiv.2406.19222

arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/2406.19222

Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline

Abstract

Abstract Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces alternative indices to investigate this issue. Two ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, and four dynamic concentration indicators compare the final group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. Using these indices, we find no evidence of any long-run trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, 62P20, 91B82, General Economics (econ.GN), Economics, Applications, FOS: Physical sciences, QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science / számítástechnika, számítógéptudomány, Applications (stat.AP), Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), General Economics, Physics and Society

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
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Average
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