Motivated by the need to predict dangerous scenarios, this article introduces a non-linear dynamic model for motorcycles consisting of four rigid bodies. Using Jourdain's principle, the model incorporates both longitudinal and lateral dynamics, targeting a balance between numerical complexity and accuracy of representation. The paper further employs the model to design a Luenberger observer based on linear quadratic regulator theory, for estimating physical states based on sensor measurements. In turn, the state estimates are useful for predicting dangerous scenarios (lowside, highside, fall). The relevance of the approach is demonstrated through simulations of various rectilinear trajectories and a lane-changing scenario using BikeSim simulator.

Keywords: motorcycle, modeling, observer, estimation, Jourdain's principle