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Predictive Modeling of Nonlinear Non-Stationary Processes in Crop Production Using Tools of SAS Enterprise Miner

Authors: Bidyuk, Petro; Terentiev, Oleksandr; Prosyankina-Zharova, Tetyana; Efendiev, Vladyslav;

Predictive Modeling of Nonlinear Non-Stationary Processes in Crop Production Using Tools of SAS Enterprise Miner

Abstract

Blackground. The issue of providing the increase of production of main agricultural crops inUkraine under conditions of environmental management requires the use of modern scientific approaches. The complexity of solving this problem lies in the lack of practical experience of applying modern information-analytical systems, where different methods for analysis and modeling of nonlinear non-stationary processes in crop production would be implemented simultaneously. The proposed methodology has the advantage of using the tools of SAS Enterprise Miner – software where a wide range of techniques are implemented, that should be used for predictive modeling of main agricultural crops according to the performed research. Objective . The goal of the study is in application of the integrated methods of analysis and predictive modeling of non-stationary processes for agricultural crop yield prediction using SAS Enterprise Miner tools. Methods . To solve the problems stated the following approaches were used: systems analysis, regression analysis, gradient boosting, probabilistic modeling and decision trees. The methodology for developing of crop yield prediction under influence of various groups of factors was offered, and the possibility of their use in decision support systems in agriculture was substantiated. Results . Based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign scientists it was proposed to improve methodology of development of yield prediction of main agricultural crops using integrated analysis methods, which were implemented in the system of SAS Enterprise Miner. The analysis of the obtained results was performed. Conclusions . Winter wheat and corn yield prediction was performed for the Forest-Steppe Zone using the developed methodic. Different methods of construction of models for prediction of the non-stationary processes were applied; the choice of the worthiest one was reasonably proved. Advanced information technologies, including SAS Enterprise Miner, were used for automatization the process of selecting the optimal model for investigated crop yield prediction.

Keywords

Нестационарный процесс; Регрессионная модель; Урожайность сельскохозяйственных культур; Прогнозирование; Система поддержки принятия решений; SAS Enterprise Miner, Нестаціонарний процес; Регресійна модель; Урожайність сільськогосподарських культур; Прогнозування; Система підтримки прийняття рішень; SAS Enterprise Miner, Non-stationary processes; Regressive model; Agricultural crop yield; Prediction; Decision support systems; SAS Enterprise Miner, Information technology, system analisys and control, Інформаційні технології, системний анаілз та керування, Информационные технологии, системный анализ и управление

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold