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Article
Data sources: zbMATH Open
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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An Approximate Control Variates Approach to Multifidelity Distribution Estimation

An approximate control variates approach to multifidelity distribution estimation
Authors: Ruijian Han; Boris Kramer; Dongjin Lee; Akil Narayan; Yiming Xu;

An Approximate Control Variates Approach to Multifidelity Distribution Estimation

Abstract

Forward simulation-based uncertainty quantification that studies the distribution of quantities of interest (QoI) is a crucial component for computationally robust engineering design and prediction. There is a large body of literature devoted to accurately assessing statistics of QoIs, and in particular, multilevel or multifidelity approaches are known to be effective, leveraging cost-accuracy tradeoffs between a given ensemble of models. However, effective algorithms that can estimate the full distribution of QoIs are still under active development. In this paper, we introduce a general multifidelity framework for estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a vector-valued QoI associated with a high-fidelity model under a budget constraint. Given a family of appropriate control variates obtained from lower-fidelity surrogates, our framework involves identifying the most cost-effective model subset and then using it to build an approximate control variates estimator for the target CDF. We instantiate the framework by constructing a family of control variates using intermediate linear approximators and rigorously analyze the corresponding algorithm. Our analysis reveals that the resulting CDF estimator is uniformly consistent and asymptotically optimal as the budget tends to infinity, with only mild moment and regularity assumptions on the joint distribution of QoIs. The approach provides a robust multifidelity CDF estimator that is adaptive to the available budget, does not require \textit{a priori} knowledge of cross-model statistics or model hierarchy, and applies to multiple dimensions. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the approach using test examples of parametric PDEs and stochastic differential equations including both academic instances and more challenging engineering problems.

41 pages, added additional numerical experiments

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, model selection, Linear regression; mixed models, Nonparametric robustness, Monte Carlo methods, robustness, Numerical Analysis (math.NA), Statistics - Computation, Statistics - Applications, control variates, multifidelity, Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference, distribution estimation, FOS: Mathematics, Applications (stat.AP), Mathematics - Numerical Analysis, Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics, Nonparametric estimation, Computation (stat.CO)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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