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Economica
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Equilibrium labour force participation and the business cycle

Authors: Kokonas, Nikolaos; Santos Monteiro , Paulo;

Equilibrium labour force participation and the business cycle

Abstract

AbstractWe develop an equilibrium model of labour force participation to examine the labour market business cycle. The model remains agnostic about unemployment inflows and outflows, modelling these flows with a structural moving average representation derived from a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model. Estimating the augmented dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on data for the USA, we identify the structural shocks and parameters driving business cycle fluctuations, avoiding misspecified job‐finding and job‐separation rates. Our results show that real wage rigidities play a minor role, labour force participation is mildly procyclical, and transitions between employment, unemployment and non‐participation are strongly cyclical.

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Keywords

unemployment, business cycles, labour force participation, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2000/2002; name=Economics and Econometrics, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/decent_work_and_economic_growth; name=SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
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