publication . Article . Other literature type . 2018

Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

Ana Casanueva; Maialen Iturbide; Joaquín Bedia; Nicola Golding; José M. Gutiérrez; Carlo Buontempo; Carlo Buontempo;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 2018 Journal: Climate Services, volume 9, pages 101-110 (issn: 2405-8807, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
  • Country: Spain
Abstract
Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-variable fire danger indices, calculated through the combination of different model output variables. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predicti...
Subjects
free text keywords: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Seasonal forecastin, Fire danger, Bias correction, Climate impact indicators, Quantile mapping, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999, Social sciences (General), H1-99, Download, Geography, Probabilistic logic, Fire weather index, System 4, Lead time, Meteorology, Mediterranean climate, Predictability, Environmental resource management, business.industry, business, Quantile
Funded by
EC| SPECS
Project
SPECS
Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 308378
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
,
EC| EUPORIAS
Project
EUPORIAS
EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 308291
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
Communities
European Marine ScienceMarine Environmental Science: Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services
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