publication . Article . 2017

Applying ARIMA model for annual volume time series of the Magdalena River

Gloria Amaris; Humberto Ávila; Thomas Guerrero;
Open Access Spanish
  • Published: 01 Apr 2017 Journal: Tecnura (issn: 2248-7638, eissn: 0123-921X, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Universidad Distrital Francisco Jose de Caldas
Abstract
Context: Climate change effects, human interventions, and river characteristics are factors that increase the risk on the population and the water resources. However, negative impacts such as flooding, and river droughts may be previously identified using appropriate numerical tools. Objectives: The annual volume (Millions of m3/year) time series of the Magdalena River was analyzed by an ARIMA model, using the historical time series of the Calamar station (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia - IDEAM), and looking for matching the modelling hypothesis with the data measured in the river. Methods: The ARIMA model is considered ...
Subjects
free text keywords: Modelo estadístico, modelo auto regresivo, serie de tiempo, Technology, T, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040
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