publication . Other literature type . Article . 2018

Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

Qingyou Yan; Mingjian Nie; Chao Qin; Le Yang;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 2018
  • Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Abstract
<jats:p>Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was constructed to forecast the electricity consumption based on the analysis of five factors which are economic development, policy factors, environmental factors, power energy ...
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doi: 10.1155/2018/4671850
Subjects
free text keywords: Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040, Mathematics, QA1-939, General Engineering, General Mathematics, Article Subject, Markov chain, Industrial organization, Market share, System dynamics, Business, Deregulation, Market based, Electricity, business.industry, Electric power industry, Electricity retailing
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