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Revista Cubana de Meteorología
Article . 2019
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Pronóstico de inundaciones costeras en Cuba por huracanes, utilizando una combinación de modelos numéricos

Authors: Ida Mitrani-Arenal; Alexis Perez-Bello; Javier Cabrales-Infante; Yoania Povea-Perez; Marcelino Hernandez-Gonzalez; Oscar Onoe Diaz-Rodriguez;

Pronóstico de inundaciones costeras en Cuba por huracanes, utilizando una combinación de modelos numéricos

Abstract

Se presenta la aplicación de los modelos combinados (WRF+ROMS+WW3+SWAN) dentro del Sistema SPNOA (Sistema de Pronósticos Numéricos Océano-Atmósfera), en la representación y predicción de las inundaciones costeras en Cuba, para uso del servicio meteorológico nacional. Se añade un módulo para el cálculo del aumento de nivel por rompiente de oleaje (wave setup). Se utilizan dominios anidados que cubren los mares Interamericanos, las aguas aledañas y las costas cubanas. Para comprobar la efectividad del sistema en la representación y pronóstico de las inundaciones, se analizan varios estudios de caso de huracanes. Se comparan los patrones de circulación de salida de WRF con los re-análisis NOAA y las trayectorias de los huracanes con las mejores trayectorias (Best track) de NHC. Posteriormente, se comparan los registros de estaciones meteorológicas y de boyas, de las variables viento, presión atmosférica y elementos de ola, con las salidas de WRF, WW3 y SWAN. Las salidas de sobreelevación del nivel del mar, dadas por ROMS+wave setup, se evalúan en comparación con registros de mareógrafos en algunos puntos de las costas de Cuba, cercanos o localizados en las áreas de inundación. Se concluye que el sistema SPNOA es eficiente en plazos de hasta 72 horas para la representación y predicción de oleaje y sobreelevación del nivel del mar, al paso de huracanes, por lo que se recomienda su uso en el servicio meteorológico cubano.

Keywords

Meteorology. Climatology, inundaciones costeras, QC851-999, Modelos numéricos, huracanes

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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