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Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
Bachelor thesis . 2022
License: CC BY NC ND
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Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
Bachelor thesis . 2022
License: CC BY NC ND
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Análisis de series temporales: estudio de un caso práctico

Authors: Gutiérrez Ramos, David;

Análisis de series temporales: estudio de un caso práctico

Abstract

Este proyecto consiste en el estudio de las series temporales sobre un caso práctico, concretamente se construirán modelos para analizar su ajuste y predicción sobre un conjunto de datos, para finalmente sacar conclusiones sobre su efectividad. Se aplicarán distintas técnicas, desde métodos clásicos tales como los métodos de descomposición y de suavizado exponencial hasta métodos más modernos como los modelos ARIMA, que se han utilizado desde el estudio de series astronómicas y climáticas, series de producción y ventas hasta la representación de ciclos económicos. Una serie temporal es el resultado de observar valores de una variable a lo largo del tiempo en intervalos regulares. La base de este trabajo, es la construcción de modelos autorregresivos integrados de medias móviles (ARIMA) desarrollados por Box y Jenkins para explicar la evolución histórica de una variable a lo largo del tiempo y predecir sus valores futuros. Se pondrá especial atención a nivel teórico para la compresión y aplicación en un caso práctico, pues dicha metodología unificó el estudio de series temporales que presentaban propiedades (o no) como la estacionalidad y/o estacionariedad. El estudio de un caso práctico será sobre los valores recopilados desde 1994 hasta la actualidad, del Tipo Europeo de Oferta Interbancaria (Euríbor), que se trata de un índice que indica el tipo de interés promedio aplicado a los préstamos que se conceden los bancos europeos entre ellos. Para los cálculos necesarios en la construcción, estimación y diagnosis del modelo, se utilizará software estadístico R que ofrece diversas librerías que incluyen herramientas para el análisis de series temporales. Tras el estudio de los conceptos necesarios para el análisis de las series se llevará acabó la parte práctica de este proyecto. En primer lugar, partiendo de la teoría se identificará el modelo que se ajuste a los datos propuestos, estimando los parámetros de los que consta. Posteriormente, pasaremos a contrastar o validar el modelo. Si el ajuste no es adecuado adecuado, deberemos plantear otro modelo. Una vez obtenido el modelo correcto con la etapa de diagnosis y predicción para finalmente extraer conclusiones sobre la precisión y/o mejoría del modelo.---ABSTRACT---This project consists of the study of time series on a practical case, specifically models will be built to analyse their fit and forecasting on a set of data, to finally draw conclusions on their effectiveness. Different techniques will be applied, from classical methods such as decomposition and exponential smoothing methods to more modern methods such as ARIMA models, which have been used from the study of astronomical and climatic series, production and sales series to the representation of economic cycles. A time series is the result of observing values of a variable over time at regular intervals. The basis of this work is the construction of integrated autoregressive models of moving averages (ARIMA) developed by Box and Jenkins to explain the historical evolution of a variable over time and forecast its future values. Special attention will be paid to the theoretical level for the understanding and application in a practical case, since this method has acquired a reputation for obtaining better results than other techniques at the time of solving problems of forecasting and control of variables and dynamic systems. The case study will be based on the values collected from 1994 to the present of the European Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), which is an index indicating the average interest rate applied to loans granted by European banks to each other. For the calculations required for the construction, estimation and diagnosis of the model, R statistical software will be used, which offers various libraries that include tools for the analysis of time series. After the study of the concepts needed for the analysis of the series, the practical part of this project will be completed. Firstly, we will start with the theory and the data set with which we will identify the model, then we will estimate the parameters to contrast or validate it, in the event that it does not fit well, we will repeat the process, otherwise, we will continue with the diagnosis and forecasting stage to finally draw conclusions on the accuracy and/or improvement of the model.

Keywords

Informática, Matemáticas

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Green