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Probabilistic and statistical methods for power laws in complex systems: applications to finance

Authors: Caballero Bragagnini, Iker Cesar;

Probabilistic and statistical methods for power laws in complex systems: applications to finance

Abstract

The application of statistical methodologies and probabilistic results of power laws (PLs) could prove useful for financial modelling and risk quantification. In this project, we delve into the connections between financial markets, PLs, extreme value theory (EVT), and stochastic processes such as α-stable processes. We provide empirical applications of statistical methods based on PLs and EVT results using real high-frequency data for stock indexes in the Japanese (Nikkei 225) and United Kingdom (FTSE 100) markets, where we reproduce statistical analyses from the references but also discuss interesting patterns found and their implications for financial practice. Moreover, we discuss the relevance of different probabilistic forces, distributions, and processes found in the econophysics literature and the different methodologies considered to estimate relevant elements for our analysis.

Keywords

Economics -- Statistical methods, Classificació AMS::60 Probability theory and stochastic processes::60G Stochastic processes, Classificació AMS::62 Statistics, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística, 330, Mandelbrot, Processos estocàstics, Complex Systems, Stable Processes, Economia -- Mètodes estadístics, 510, Lévy, Stochastic processes, Power Law, Extreme Value Theory, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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