The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms
- Publisher: eScholarship, University of California
This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, standard regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results hinge on the interaction of macroeconomic uncertainty, a sunk cost, and heterogeneous productivity across firms. They indicate that a multinational firmâ€™s response to increases in exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whether the volatility arises from shocks in the firmâ€™s native or host country. It is the first study to depart from the representative-firm framework in an analysis of direct investment behavior with money.