The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles

Preprint, External research report English OPEN
Hikaru Saijo;
  • Publisher: UTokyo Price Project
  • Journal: JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan Working Paper Series,volume 32

I study a business cycle model where agents learn about the state of the economy by accumulating capital. During recessions, agents invest less, and this generates noisier estimates of macroeconomic conditions and an increase in uncertainty. The endogenous increase in a... View more
  • References (41)
    41 references, page 1 of 5

    Aguiar, Mark and Gita Gopinath, \Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, 2007, 115, 69{102.

    Altig, David, Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Jesper Linde, \FirmSpeci c Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011, 14, 225{247.

    Arellano, Cristina, Yan Bai, and Patrick Kehoe, \Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Volatility," 2012. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Aruoba, S. Boragan, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, and Juan Rubio-Ram rez, \Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrium Economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, 30, 2477{2508.

    Bachmann, Rudiger and Christian Bayer, \`Wait-and-See' Business Cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, 60, 704{719.

    and Giuseppe Moscarini, \Business Cycles and Endogenous Uncertainty," 2011. Manuscript, RWTH Aachen University.

    , Steffen Elstner, and Eric Sims, \Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, 5, 217{249.

    Barsky, Robert B. and Eric R. Sims, \Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Con dence," American Economic Review, 2012, 102, 1343{1377.

    Basu, Susanto and Brent Bundick, \Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," 2011. Manuscript, Boston College.

    Beaudry, Paul and Franck Portier, \Exploring Pigou's Theory of Cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, 1183{1216.

  • Metrics
Share - Bookmark