Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

Research, Preprint English OPEN
Roy Batchelor;
  • Publisher: Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Munich
  • Subject: bias | E37 | Macroeconomic forecasts | judgemental forecasting | Macroeconomic forecasts, judgemental forecasting, bias | E27
    • ddc: ddc:330
      jel: jel:E27 | jel:E37

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and test... View more
  • References (1)

    US CA UK GE FR IT JP US CA UK GE FR IT JP Radulescu, D.M. and M. Stimmelmayr, Does Incorporation Matter? Quantifying the Welfare Loss of Non-Uniform Taxation across Sectors, March 2006.

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