Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Research, Preprint OPEN
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K.;
(2015)
  • Publisher: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo) Munich
  • Subject: C53 | Brent | forecast combination | retail gasoline price,oil market,real-time data,WTI,Brent,survey expectations,expert forecasts,forecast combination | Brent; Expert forecasts; Forecast combination; Oil market; Real-time data; Retail gasoline price; Survey expectations; WTI | WTI | expert forecasts | Q43 | oil market | real-time data | survey expectations | retail gasoline price
    • jel: jel:C53 | jel:Q43
      ddc: ddc:330

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore sever... View more
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