1See Daymont and Andrisani (1984), Grogger and Eide (1995), Hamermesh and Donald (2008), Loury (1997), Loury and Garman (1995), and James, Nabeel, Conaty and To (1989).
2This desire has received much attention. See, for example, “Why Science Majors Change Their Minds (It's just so darn hard).” NY Times, November 4, 2011.
3For other work recognizing the importance of learning in determining educational outcomes see, for example, Manski 1989; Altonji 1993; Carneiro, Hansen and Heckman 2003; Cunha, Heckman and Navarro 2005. Note: Numbers in the second column (percent chance) should each be between 0 and 100 and should add up to 100. Note: A=4.0, B=3.0, C=2.0, D=1.0, F=0.0. So numbers in third column (GPA) should be between 0.00 and 4.00.