Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

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McAllister, Patrick ; Newell, G. ; Matysiak, George (2005)
  • Publisher: University of Reading
  • Subject: Real Estate Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Disagreement, Consensus.

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding. \ud
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