Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

Preprint, Other literature type English OPEN
Raghavan, Vasanthan; Galstyan, Aram; Tartakovsky, Alexander G.;
  • Publisher: The Institute of Mathematical Statistics
  • Journal: issn: 1932-6157
  • Publisher copyright policies & self-archiving
  • Related identifiers: doi: 10.1214/13-AOAS682
  • Subject: Computer Science - Social and Information Networks | Physics - Physics and Society | self-exciting hurdle model | Peru | Indonesia | Statistics - Applications | terrorist groups | spurt detection | Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability | point process | terrorism | Hidden Markov model | Colombia

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that cap... View more
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