Manipulation in political stock markets: Preconditions and evidence

Research, Preprint English OPEN
Hansen, Jan ; Schmidt, Carsten ; Strobel, Martin (2001)
  • Publisher: Berlin: Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
  • Subject: D4 | prognosis,political stock markets,decisive vote illusion,manipulation | political stock markets | decisive vote illusion | G1 | C93 | prognosis | manipulation
    • jel: jel:G1 | jel:D4 | jel:C93
      ddc: ddc:330

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 99 state elections.
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