Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

Article English OPEN
Asher, Jason;
(2017)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
  • Journal: Epidemics (issn: 1755-4365)
  • Publisher copyright policies & self-archiving
  • Related identifiers: doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.009
  • Subject: Epidemiology | RC109-216 | Virology | Infectious Diseases | Infectious and parasitic diseases | Microbiology | Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health | Parasitology
    arxiv: Quantitative Biology::Populations and Evolution

We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and fin... View more
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