This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelorâ€™s degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative mod... View more
1 Recent work includes Arcidiacono et al. (2012), Athreya and Eberly (2013), Stange (2012), and Trachter (2014).
7 Actual policies that pursue these goals include income contingent student loans (Chapman, 2006) and dual enrollment programs (Stephanie Marken et al., 2013).
8 Recent examples include Glynn et al. (2011) and Lin et al. (2012). Astin (1997) and Light and Strayer (2000) use data for many colleges. See Reason (2009) for a survey.
9 Examples include Akyol and Athreya (2005), Altonji (1993), Athreya and Eberly (2013), Castex (2011), Caucutt and Kumar (2003), Chatterjee and Ionescu (2012), Johnson (2013), and Keane and Wolpin (1997). Since we are unable to determine how much college completion risk these papers imply, we cannot compare our findings with theirs.
Glynn, Joseph G, Paul L Sauer, and Thomas E Miller, “A Logistic Regression Model For The Enhancement Of Student Retention: The Identification Of At-Risk Freshmen,” International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 2011, 1 (8).
Hendricks, Lutz and Oksana Leukhina, “The Return to College: Selection and Dropout Risk,” 2014. Mimeo. University of North Carolina.
Huggett, Mark, Gustavo Ventura, and Amir Yaron, “Sources of Lifetime Inequality,” American Economic Review, 2011, 101, 2923-54.
Johnson, Matthew T., “Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry,” Journal of Labor Economics, 2013, 31 (4), pp. 669-725.
Keane, M. P. and K. I. Wolpin, “The career decisions of young men,” Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105 (3), 473-522.
King, Miriam, Steven Ruggles, J Trent Alexander, Sarah Flood, Katie Genadek, Matthew B Schroeder, Brandon Trampe, and Rebecca Vick, “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Current Population Survey: Version 3.0. [Machine-readable database],” 2010. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.