Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: a discrepancy approach

Article English OPEN
Strong, M.; Oakley, J.; Chilcott, J.;
(2012)
  • Publisher: Royal Statistical Society

Healthcare resource allocation decisions are commonly informed by computer model predictions of population mean costs and health effects. It is common to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction due to uncertain model inputs, but methods for quantifying uncertainty du... View more
  • References (21)
    21 references, page 1 of 3

    Bernardo, J. M. and Smith, A. F. M. (1994). Bayesian Theory, Chichester: John Wiley.

    Bojke, L., Claxton, K., Sculpher, M. and Palmer, S. (2009). Characterizing structural uncertainty in decision analytic models: A review and application of methods, Value Health, 12 (5): 739{749.

    Chilcott, J., Tappenden, P., Paisley, S., Kaltenthaler, E. and Johnson, M. (2010a). Choice and judgement in developing models for health technology assessment; a qualitative study, ScHARR Discussion Paper , Available from http://www. shef.ac.uk/scharr/sections/heds/dps-2010.html.

    Chilcott, J., Tappenden, P., Rawdin, A., Johnson, M., Kaltenthaler, E., Paisley, S., Papaioannou, D. and Shippam, A. (2010b). Avoiding and identifying errors in health technology assessment models, Health Technol Assess, 14 (25).

    Claxton, K., Sculpher, M., McCabe, C., Briggs, A., Akehurst, R., Buxton, M., Brazier, J. and O'Hagan, T. (2005). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for nice technology assessment: not an optional extra, Health Econ, 14 (4): 339{347.

    Garthwaite, P. H., Kadane, J. B. and O'Hagan, A. (2005). Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions, J Am Stat Assoc, 100 (470): 680{700.

    Goldstein, M. and Rougier, J. (2009). Rei ed bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems, J Stat Plan Inference, 139 (3): 1221{1239.

    Jackson, C. H., Sharples, L. D. and Thompson, S. G. (2010). Structural and parameter uncertainty in bayesian cost-e ectiveness models, J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat, 59 (2): 233{253.

    Jackson, C. H., Thompson, S. G. and Sharples, L. D. (2009). Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging, J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc, 172 (2): 383{404.

    Kadane, J. B. and Lazar, N. A. (2004). Methods and criteria for model selection, J Am Stat Assoc, 99 (465): 279{290.

  • Metrics
Share - Bookmark