publication . Article . Book . Research . Preprint . 2015

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends.

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 2015
  • Publisher: Birkbeck College, University of London
Abstract
We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main variables allows us to estimate both the direct impact of demographic structure and their feedback effects. Our estimates confirm the importance of age structure, with young and ol...
Subjects
free text keywords: innovation, population age profile, population age profile, medium-term, output growth, innovation, lifecycle, E32, life-cycle, ems, Demographic changes, population age profile, medium-term, output growth, savings and investment., J11, output growth, Kuznets cycles, medium-term, jel:E32, jel:J11, ddc:330
40 references, page 1 of 3

Aksoy, Y., Grasl, T., and Smith, R. P. (2012). The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries. Working Papers 1212, Birkbeck, University of London. [OpenAIRE]

Baltagi, B., Gri n, J., and Xiong, W. (2000). To pool or not to pool: Homogeneous versus heterogeneous estimators applied to cigarette demand. Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1):117{126. [OpenAIRE]

Bloom, D., Canning, D., Fink, G., and Finlay, J. (2007). Does age structure forecast economic growth? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(4):569{585. [OpenAIRE]

Bloom, N., Jones, C. I., Reenen, J. V., and Webb, M. (2017). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? NBER Working Papers 23782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Carvalho, C., Ferrero, A., and Nechio, F. (2016). Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism. European Economic Review, 88(C):208{226. [OpenAIRE]

Coakley, J., Fuertes, A., and Smith, R. (2006). Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50(9):2361{2380.

Comin, D. and Gertler, M. (2006). Medium-Term Business Cycles. American Economic Review, 96(3):523{551.

Curto, V., Einav, L., Finkelstein, A., Levin, J. D., and Bhattacharya, J. (2017). Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare. NBER Working Papers 23090.

Derrien, F., Kecskes, A., and Nguyen, P. (2017). Demographics and innovation. Technical report.

Eggertsson, G. B. and Mehrotra, N. R. (2014). A Model of Secular Stagnation. NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

European Commission (2015). The 2015 ageing report. European Economy series 3, 2015, European Commission - Directorate-General for Economic and Financial A airs.

Fair, R. and Dominguez, K. (1991). E ects of the changing us age distribution on macroeconomic equations. The American Economic Review, pages 1276{1294.

Favero, C. A. and Galasso, V. (2015). Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe. CEPR Discussion Papers 10887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Favero, C. A., Gozluklu, A. E., and Yang, H. (2016). Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates. IMF Economic Review, 64(4):732{776.

Fernald, J. G. and Jones, C. I. (2014). The future of U.S. economic growth. Working Paper 19830, National Bureau of Economic Research. [OpenAIRE]

40 references, page 1 of 3
Related research
Abstract
We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main variables allows us to estimate both the direct impact of demographic structure and their feedback effects. Our estimates confirm the importance of age structure, with young and ol...
Subjects
free text keywords: innovation, population age profile, population age profile, medium-term, output growth, innovation, lifecycle, E32, life-cycle, ems, Demographic changes, population age profile, medium-term, output growth, savings and investment., J11, output growth, Kuznets cycles, medium-term, jel:E32, jel:J11, ddc:330
40 references, page 1 of 3

Aksoy, Y., Grasl, T., and Smith, R. P. (2012). The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries. Working Papers 1212, Birkbeck, University of London. [OpenAIRE]

Baltagi, B., Gri n, J., and Xiong, W. (2000). To pool or not to pool: Homogeneous versus heterogeneous estimators applied to cigarette demand. Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1):117{126. [OpenAIRE]

Bloom, D., Canning, D., Fink, G., and Finlay, J. (2007). Does age structure forecast economic growth? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(4):569{585. [OpenAIRE]

Bloom, N., Jones, C. I., Reenen, J. V., and Webb, M. (2017). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? NBER Working Papers 23782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Carvalho, C., Ferrero, A., and Nechio, F. (2016). Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism. European Economic Review, 88(C):208{226. [OpenAIRE]

Coakley, J., Fuertes, A., and Smith, R. (2006). Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50(9):2361{2380.

Comin, D. and Gertler, M. (2006). Medium-Term Business Cycles. American Economic Review, 96(3):523{551.

Curto, V., Einav, L., Finkelstein, A., Levin, J. D., and Bhattacharya, J. (2017). Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare. NBER Working Papers 23090.

Derrien, F., Kecskes, A., and Nguyen, P. (2017). Demographics and innovation. Technical report.

Eggertsson, G. B. and Mehrotra, N. R. (2014). A Model of Secular Stagnation. NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

European Commission (2015). The 2015 ageing report. European Economy series 3, 2015, European Commission - Directorate-General for Economic and Financial A airs.

Fair, R. and Dominguez, K. (1991). E ects of the changing us age distribution on macroeconomic equations. The American Economic Review, pages 1276{1294.

Favero, C. A. and Galasso, V. (2015). Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe. CEPR Discussion Papers 10887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Favero, C. A., Gozluklu, A. E., and Yang, H. (2016). Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates. IMF Economic Review, 64(4):732{776.

Fernald, J. G. and Jones, C. I. (2014). The future of U.S. economic growth. Working Paper 19830, National Bureau of Economic Research. [OpenAIRE]

40 references, page 1 of 3
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publication . Article . Book . Research . Preprint . 2015

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends.

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias;