publication . Article . 2011

MAUNDER MINIMUM ONSET

M. Lockwood; M. J. Owens; L. Barnard; C. J. Davis; F. Steinhilber;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2011
  • Publisher: American Geophysical Union
  • Country: United Kingdom
Abstract
The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow predi...
Subjects
free text keywords: General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics, Autocorrelation, Solar minimum, Sunspot number, Climatology, Predictability, Atmospheric sciences, Solar cycle, Geology
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