publication . Conference object . Part of book or chapter of book . 2014

Bayesian Inferential Reasoning Model for Crime Investigation

Wang, Jing; Xu, Zhijie;
  • Published: 01 Jan 2014
  • Country: United Kingdom
Abstract
Forensic inferential reasoning is a “fact-finding” journey for crime investigation and evidence presentation. In complex legal practices involving various forms of evidence, conventional decision making processes based on human intuition and piece-to-piece evidence explanation often fail to reconstruct meaningful and convincing legal hypothesis. It is necessary to develop logical system for evidence management and relationship evaluations. In this paper, a forensic application-oriented inferential reasoning model has been devised base on Bayesian Networks. It provides an effective approach to identify and evaluate possible relationships among different evidence....
Subjects
free text keywords: QA75
Related Organizations

1. To address the suggestion from Reviewer #1 from Section 3.1, Paragraph 1: “…Before an accused people or victims can “tell” a real criminal story, all the scenarios and their logical relationships are full of uncertainties and possibilities...” Has been changed to: “Forensic investigation is a so-called truth-rebuilding task based on testing and evaluating different forms of evidence. Logical relationships across those evidence pieces are full of uncertainties and possibilities. Those criminal stories are usually built upon logical inferential reasoning. Bayesian networks (BNs) provide useful mathematical tools for handling those uncertainties.”

2. To address the suggestion from Reviewer #2 from Section 6, the First paragraph has been rewritten: “A forensic application-orientated inferential reasoning method has been introduced in this paper. The model is based on BNs and has been designed as three layers hierarchical structure including suspects, evidence pieces and judgments. The model highlights the impact from forensic evidence which bridge the gap between assumptions and conclusions. Inferential reasoning progress of a pedagogical example “Lost Balaclava” has been tested under the structure of the developed framework. The system has been proved as a valid approach to understanding the forensic inferential reasoning progress.”

Abstract
Forensic inferential reasoning is a “fact-finding” journey for crime investigation and evidence presentation. In complex legal practices involving various forms of evidence, conventional decision making processes based on human intuition and piece-to-piece evidence explanation often fail to reconstruct meaningful and convincing legal hypothesis. It is necessary to develop logical system for evidence management and relationship evaluations. In this paper, a forensic application-oriented inferential reasoning model has been devised base on Bayesian Networks. It provides an effective approach to identify and evaluate possible relationships among different evidence....
Subjects
free text keywords: QA75
Related Organizations

1. To address the suggestion from Reviewer #1 from Section 3.1, Paragraph 1: “…Before an accused people or victims can “tell” a real criminal story, all the scenarios and their logical relationships are full of uncertainties and possibilities...” Has been changed to: “Forensic investigation is a so-called truth-rebuilding task based on testing and evaluating different forms of evidence. Logical relationships across those evidence pieces are full of uncertainties and possibilities. Those criminal stories are usually built upon logical inferential reasoning. Bayesian networks (BNs) provide useful mathematical tools for handling those uncertainties.”

2. To address the suggestion from Reviewer #2 from Section 6, the First paragraph has been rewritten: “A forensic application-orientated inferential reasoning method has been introduced in this paper. The model is based on BNs and has been designed as three layers hierarchical structure including suspects, evidence pieces and judgments. The model highlights the impact from forensic evidence which bridge the gap between assumptions and conclusions. Inferential reasoning progress of a pedagogical example “Lost Balaclava” has been tested under the structure of the developed framework. The system has been proved as a valid approach to understanding the forensic inferential reasoning progress.”

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