publication . Article . 2014

Bayesian Precalibration of a Large Stochastic Microsimulation Model

Alexis Boukouvalas; Pete Sykes; Dan Cornford; Hugo Maruri-Aguilar;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jun 2014
  • Country: United Kingdom
Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximat...
free text keywords: Mechanical Engineering, Automotive Engineering, Computer Science Applications, Iterative method, Computer science, Stochastic process, Bayesian inference, Simulation, Microsimulation, Traffic simulation, Probabilistic logic, Bayesian probability, Gaussian process, symbols.namesake, symbols
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