US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

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Clements, Michael P.
  • Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Warwick
  • Subject: HB
    mesheuropmc: education | health care economics and organizations | social sciences | population characteristics

The recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss\ud functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh\ud under and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the SPF respondents’\ud histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters.
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