Voting and the macroeconomy : separating trend from cycle

Book, Preprint English OPEN
Maloney, John ; Pickering, Andrew Christopher (2011)
  • Publisher: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York
  • Subject: economic voting, competence, median voter, voter rationality
    • jel: jel:D72
    mesheuropmc: health care economics and organizations

Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP. When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.
  • References (3)

    Sanders, David and Sean Carey (2002). Temporal variations in economic voting: a comparative crossnational analysis. pp. 200–32 in Hans Dorussen and Michael Taylor (eds.) Economic Voting. Routledge: London.

    Waldendorp, Jaap, Hans Keman and Ian Budge (1998). Party government in 20 Democracies: an update (1990–1995). European Journal of Political Research 33: 125–164.

    Whitten, Guy D. and Harvey D. Palmer (1999). Cross-national analyses of economic voting. Electoral Studies 18: 49-67.

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