The statistical relation of sea-level and temperature revisited

Article English OPEN
Grassi, Stefano ; Hillebrand, Eric ; Ventosa-Santaularia, Daniel (2013)

We propose a semi-empirical model for the relation between global mean surface temperature and global sea-levels. In contradistinction to earlier approaches to this problem, the model allows for valid statistical inference and joint estimation of trend components and interaction term of temperature and sea-level. Estimation of the model on the data set used in Rahmstorf (2007) yields a proportionality coefficient of 4.6 mm/year per °C at a one-sided significance level of 7.6 percent or higher. Long-term simulations of the model result in a two-sided 90-percent confidence interval for the sea-level rise in the year 2100 of [15 cm, 150 cm] above the 1990 level. This is a wider margin of error than was reported in the previous literature, and it reflects the substantial uncertainty in relating two trending time series.
  • References (31)
    31 references, page 1 of 4

    Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M., Vermeer, M., 2013. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environmental Research Letters 8, 014013.

    Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A., 2002. Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting. Springer, New York.

    Chang, Y., Miller, J.I., Park, J.Y., 2009. Extracting a common stochastic trend: theory with some applications. Journal of Econometrics 150, 231-247.

    Church, J.A., White, N.J., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (1), L01602.

    Commandeur, J.J.F., Koopman, S.J., 2007. An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Durbin, J., Koopman, S.J., 2001. Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Granger, C.W.J., Newbold, P., 1974. Spurious regression in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2, 111-120.

    Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C., Jevrejeva, S., 2010. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Climate Dynamics 34 (4), 461-472.

    Hansen, J.E., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T., 2001. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 23947.

    Harvey, A.C., 1989. Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark