Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Article, Unknown English OPEN
Samset, B. H. ; Myhre, G. ; Forster, P. M. ; Hodnebrog, Ø. ; Andrews, T. ; Faluvegi, G. ; Fläschner, D. ; Kasoar, M. ; Kharin, V. ; Kirkevåg, A. ; Lamarque, J.-F. ; Olivié, D. ; Richardson, T. ; Shindell, D. ; Shine, Keith ; Takemura, T. ; Voulgarakis, A. (2016)
  • Publisher: American Geophysical Union
  • Related identifiers: doi: 10.1002/2016GL068064
  • Subject: ALTITUDE | MD Multidisciplinary | PDRMIP | BLACK CARBON | climate drivers | HYDROLOGIC-CYCLE | Geology | DIOXIDE | SPREAD | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary | precipitation | Physical Sciences | Science & Technology | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
    mesheuropmc: sense organs

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
  • References (30)
    30 references, page 1 of 3

    Allen, M. R., and W. J. Ingram (2002Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle), Nature, 419(6903), 224-232.

    Andrews, T., and P. M. Forster (2010), The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels, Environ. Res. Lett., 5(2), 025212, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025212.

    Andrews, T., P. M. Forster, O. Boucher, N. Bellouin, and A. Jones (2010), Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043991.

    Andrews, T., J. M. Gregory, M. J. Webb, and K. E. Taylor (2012), Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, doi:10.1029/2012GL051607.

    Bala, G., K. Caldeira, and R. Nemani (2010), Fast versus slow response in climate change: Implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dyn., 35(2-3), 423-434, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y.

    Ban-Weiss, G. A., L. Cao, G. Bala, and K. Caldeira (2011), Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols, Clim. Dyn., 38(5-6), 897-911, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1052-y.

    Bond, T. C., et al. (2013), Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5380-5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171.

    Bony, S., G. Bellon, D. Klocke, S. Sherwood, S. Fermepin, and S. Denvil (2013), Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation, Nat. Geosci., 6(6), 447-451, doi:10.1038/ngeo1799. [Available at ngeo1799.html#supplementary-information.]

    Boucher, O., et al. (2013), Clouds and aerosols, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 571-658, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York.

    Caldeira, K., and N. P. Myhrvold (2013), Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Environ. Res. Lett., 8(3), 034039.

  • Similar Research Results (3)
  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark