The use of classification and regression tree to predict 15-year survival in community-dwelling older people

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Melillo, Paolo ; Pecchia, Leandro ; Bath, Peter A. ; Bracale, Marcello (2013)
  • Publisher: University of Sheffield
  • Subject: RA

Previous research has identified various risk factors for mortality in older people. The aim of this paper was to use Classification and Regression Tree to predict 15-year survival in community-dwelling older people. Data were obtained from a United Kingdom representative sample of 1042 community-dwelling people aged 65 and over. Outcome was time from 1985 interview to death or censorship on February 29, 2000. Classification and Regression Tree is a non-parametric technique widely used in medical domain classification. We applied CART to the set of risk-factors identified in a previous research. The selected CART model is based on age, dose of drug prescribed and handgrip measures. It predicts survival with a sensitivity rate of 76.3% and a specificity rate of 66.3%. The selection of variables are consistent with previous research. Finally, we observed the range of risk factors and their combination associated with increased and decreased mortality.\ud
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