Modelling migration futures: development and testing\ud of the rainfalls agent-based migration model – Tanzania

Article English OPEN
Smith, Christopher D (2014)

This paper describes the conceptual and practical development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania (RABMM-T). Drawing upon the literature on the process of developing and parameterizing a social simulation in the absence of spatio-temporal data, the paper outlines the translation of the conceptual framework into a working agent-based model. The possible impact of a change in local rainfall variability and mean upon household income, food production, and therefore the resilience and migration of members, is simulated to permit consideration of the possible impact of the artificial scenarios tested. In addition to the influence of changing rainfall, other non-rainfall scenarios are tested to explore the scale of the changes simulated. It is proposed that while a relatively clear impact of rainfall scenarios upon household resilience is simulated, the impact upon migration of household members is generally less clear. Furthermore, demographic and societal changes to the model are also seen to clearly contribute to the simulation outputs generated. The paper concludes that RABMM-T offers the first step in developing a potentially valuable resource for producing comparable migration forecasts that consider a range of contributory mechanisms. However, careful parameterisation is required to ensure the quality and value of model outputs.
  • References (24)
    24 references, page 1 of 3

    Afifi, T., Liwenga, E., & Kwezi, L. (2013). Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in SameKilimanjaro, Tanzania. Climate and Development. doi:10. 1080/17565529.2013.826128

    Arndt, C., Farmer, W., Strzepek, K., & Thurlow, J. (2012). Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania (Policy research working paper 6188). Washington, DC: The World Bank, Development Research Group, Agriculture and Rural Development Team.

    Bardsley, D.K., & Hugo, G.J. (2010). Migration and climate change: Examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making. Population and Environment, 32, 238-262. doi:10.1007/s11111-010-0126-9

    Barrios, S. Bertinelli, L., & Strobl, E. (2006). Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics, 60(3), 357-371. doi:10.1016/ j.jue.2006.04.005

    Black, R., Bennet, S.R.G., Thomas, S.M., & Beddington, J.R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478(7370), 477-479. doi:10.1038/478477a

    Bonabeau, E. (2002). Agent-based modelling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(3), 7280-7287. doi:10. 1073/pnas.082080899

    Buchanan, M. (2009). Economics: Meltdown modelling. Nature, 460(7265), 680-682. doi:10.1038/460680a

    Gray, C.L. (2010). Environmental refugees or economic migrants? Population reference bureau. Retrieved October 29, 2013, from http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/ 2010/environmentalmigrants.aspx

    Henry, S., Schoumaker, B., & Beauchemin, C. (2004). The impact of environmental conditions on migration in Burkina Faso: A multi-level event-history analysis. Population and Envrionment, 25(5), 423-460. doi:10.1023/B:POEN. 0000036928.17696.e8

    Janssen, M., & Ostrom, E. (2006). Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecology and Society, 11(2), article no. 37. Retrieved from http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art37/

  • Metrics
    0
    views in OpenAIRE
    0
    views in local repository
    56
    downloads in local repository

    The information is available from the following content providers:

    From Number Of Views Number Of Downloads
    Sussex Research Online - IRUS-UK 0 56
Share - Bookmark