Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Book English OPEN
Tapinos, Efstathios (2009)
  • Publisher: Aston University

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.
  • References (73)
    73 references, page 1 of 8

    Barney J. B. Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management 1991; 17(1); 99-120.

    Barney J. B. 2001, Resource-based theories of competitive advantage: A ten-year retrospective on the resource-based view. Journal of Management; 27(6); 643-650.

    Barney J. B. and Hesterly W. 2008, Strategic Management and Competitive Advantage; 2nd edition; Pearson.

    Bourgeois L. J. 1985, Strategic goals, perceived uncertainty, and economic performance in volatile environments. Academy of Management Journal; 28(3); 548-573.

    Brush T. H. and Artz K. W. 1999, Toward a contingent resource-based theory: The impact of information asymmetry on the value of capabilities in veterinary medicine. Strategic Management Journal; 20(3); 223.

    Buchko A. A. 1994, Conceptualization and Measurement of Environmental Uncertainty: An Assessment of the Miles and Snow Perceived Environmental Uncertainty Scale. Academy of Management Journal; 37(2); 410-425.

    Burt G., Wright G., Bradfield R., Cairns G. and Van der Heijden K. 2006, The role of scenario planning in exploring the environment in view of the limitation of PEST and Its derivatives. International Studies of Management & Organization; 36(3); 50-76.

    Chermack T. J. and Lynham S. A. 2002, Definition s and outcome variables of scenario planning. Human Resource Development Review. 1(3); 366-383.

    Chermack T. J. 2008, Scenario Planning: Human Resource Development's Strategic Learning Tool. Advances in Developing Human Resources, 10(2); 129-146.

    Cornelius P., Van de Putte A and Romani M., 2005, Three decades of Scenario Planning in Shell, California Management Review, 48(1); 92-109.

  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark