Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales?

Article English OPEN
Pearson, K. J. ; Shaffrey, L. C. ; Methven, J. ; Hodges, K. I. (2014)

The ability of the HiGEM climate model to represent high-impact, regional, precipitation events is investigated in two ways. The first focusses on a case study of extreme regional accumulation of precipitation during the passage of a summer extra-tropical cyclone across southern England on 20 July 2007 that resulted in a national flooding emergency. The climate model is compared with a global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and higher resolution, nested limited area models. While the climate model does not simulate the timing and location of the cyclone and associated precipitation as accurately as the NWP simulations, the total accumulated precipitation in all models is similar to the rain gauge estimate across \ud England and Wales. The regional accumulation over the event is insensitive to horizontal resolution for grid spacings ranging from 90km to 4km.\ud \ud Secondly, the free-running climate model reproduces the statistical distribution of daily precipitation accumulations observed in the England-Wales precipitation record. The model distribution diverges increasingly from the record for longer accumulation periods with a consistent under-representation of more intense multi-day accumulations. This may indicate a lack of low-frequency variability associated with weather regime persistence. Despite this, the overall seasonal and annual precipitation totals from the model are still comparable to those from ERA-Interim.
  • References (34)
    34 references, page 1 of 4

    Alexander L.V., Jones P.D. 2001. Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 1: 142-150.

    Allan R.P., Soden B.J. 2008. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science. 321(5895): 1481- 1484. ISSN 1095-9203, doi:10.1126/science.1160787

    Allen M.R., Ingram W.J. 2002. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature. 419: 224-232.

    Blackburn M., Methven J., Roberts N. 2008. Large-scale context for the UK floods in summer 2007. Weather. 63: 280-288.

    Catto J.L. 2009. Ph.D. Thesis. Extra-tropical cyclones in HiGEM: climatology, structure and future predictions. University of Reading.

    Catto J.L., Shaffrey L.C., Hodges, K.I. 2010. Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? J. Clim. 23(7): 1621- 1635. ISSN 1520-0442.

    Chan S.C., Kendon E.J., Fowler H.J., Blenkinsop S., Ferro C.A.T., Stephenson D.B. 2013. Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation? Clim. Dyn. 41: 1475-1495

    Davies T., Cullen M.J.P., Malcolm A.J., Mawson M.H., Staniforth A., White A.A., Wood N. 2005. A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 1759-1782.

    Essery R., Best M., Cox P. 2001. MOSES 2.2 Tech. Doc. Hadley Centre Tech. Rep. 30, Met. Office Hadley Centre.

    Fowler H.J., Ekstro¨m M., Kilsby C.G., Jones P.D. 2005. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate. J. Hydrol. 300: 212-233.

  • Metrics
    0
    views in OpenAIRE
    0
    views in local repository
    25
    downloads in local repository

    The information is available from the following content providers:

    From Number Of Views Number Of Downloads
    Central Archive at the University of Reading - IRUS-UK 0 25
Share - Bookmark