publication . Other literature type . Article . 2019

A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

Christoph Schürz; Brigitta Hollosi; Christoph Matulla; Alexander Pressl; Thomas Ertl; Karsten Schulz; Bano Mehdi;
  • Published: 04 Mar 2019
  • Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Abstract
<p>Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, which are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation of environmental variables. Yet to draw well-informed con...
Subjects
free text keywords: Technology, T, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, G, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, SWAT model, Visualization, Parametrization, Precipitation, Climate change, Geology, Meteorology, Hydrology, Uncertainty analysis, Point source, Land use
137 references, page 1 of 10

Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J., and Srinivasan, R.: Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT, J. Hydrol., 333, 413-430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014, 2007.

Amt d. Stmk LReg: Regionale Bevölkerungsprognose Steiermark 2015/16 - Bundesland, Bezirke und Gemeinden, Tech. rep., Graz, Austria, available at: http://docplayer.org/32447223- Regionale-bevoelkerungsprognose-steiermark (last access: 30 April 2018), 2016.

Anderson, B., Borgonovo, E., Galeotti, M., and Roson, R.: Uncertainty in climate change modeling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?, Risk Anal., 34, 271-293, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12117, 2014.

Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34, 73-89, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x, 1998. [OpenAIRE]

Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M. J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R. D., Griensven, A. V., VanLiew, M. W., Kannan, N., and Jha, M. K.: Swat: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation, T. Asabe, 55, 1491-1508, 2012.

Baroni, G. and Tarantola, S.: A General Probabilistic Framework for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models: A hydrological case study, Environ. Model. Softw., 51, 26-34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.022, 2014. [OpenAIRE]

Beven, K.: The limits of splitting: Hydrology, Sci. Total Environ., 183, 89-97, https://doi.org/10.1016/0048-9697(95)04964- 9, 1996.

Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18-36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006. [OpenAIRE]

Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11-29, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8, 2001. [OpenAIRE]

BGBl. 1996/210: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Land- und Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus Abwasserreinigungsanlagen für Siedlungsgebiete (1. AEV für kommunales Abwasser), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1996.

BGBl. II 2006/96: Qualitätszielverordnung Chemie Oberflächengewässer (QZV Chemie OG), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 2006.

BGBl. II 2010/99: Qualitätszielverordnung Ökologie Oberflächengewässer (QZV Ökologie OG), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 2010.

BGBl. II Nr. 10/1999: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Landund Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus Gerbereien, Lederfabriken und Pelzzurichtereien (AEV Gerberei), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1999.

BGBl. II Nr. 12/1999: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Landund Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus der Schlachtung und Fleischverarbeitung (AEV Fleischwirtschaft), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1999.

Bieger, K., Hörmann, G., and Fohrer, N.: The impact of land use change in the Xiangxi Catchment (China) on water balance and sediment transport, Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0429-3, 2013. [OpenAIRE]

137 references, page 1 of 10
Abstract
<p>Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, which are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation of environmental variables. Yet to draw well-informed con...
Subjects
free text keywords: Technology, T, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, G, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, SWAT model, Visualization, Parametrization, Precipitation, Climate change, Geology, Meteorology, Hydrology, Uncertainty analysis, Point source, Land use
137 references, page 1 of 10

Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J., and Srinivasan, R.: Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT, J. Hydrol., 333, 413-430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014, 2007.

Amt d. Stmk LReg: Regionale Bevölkerungsprognose Steiermark 2015/16 - Bundesland, Bezirke und Gemeinden, Tech. rep., Graz, Austria, available at: http://docplayer.org/32447223- Regionale-bevoelkerungsprognose-steiermark (last access: 30 April 2018), 2016.

Anderson, B., Borgonovo, E., Galeotti, M., and Roson, R.: Uncertainty in climate change modeling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?, Risk Anal., 34, 271-293, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12117, 2014.

Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34, 73-89, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x, 1998. [OpenAIRE]

Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M. J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R. D., Griensven, A. V., VanLiew, M. W., Kannan, N., and Jha, M. K.: Swat: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation, T. Asabe, 55, 1491-1508, 2012.

Baroni, G. and Tarantola, S.: A General Probabilistic Framework for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models: A hydrological case study, Environ. Model. Softw., 51, 26-34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.022, 2014. [OpenAIRE]

Beven, K.: The limits of splitting: Hydrology, Sci. Total Environ., 183, 89-97, https://doi.org/10.1016/0048-9697(95)04964- 9, 1996.

Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18-36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006. [OpenAIRE]

Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11-29, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8, 2001. [OpenAIRE]

BGBl. 1996/210: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Land- und Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus Abwasserreinigungsanlagen für Siedlungsgebiete (1. AEV für kommunales Abwasser), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1996.

BGBl. II 2006/96: Qualitätszielverordnung Chemie Oberflächengewässer (QZV Chemie OG), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 2006.

BGBl. II 2010/99: Qualitätszielverordnung Ökologie Oberflächengewässer (QZV Ökologie OG), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 2010.

BGBl. II Nr. 10/1999: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Landund Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus Gerbereien, Lederfabriken und Pelzzurichtereien (AEV Gerberei), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1999.

BGBl. II Nr. 12/1999: Verordnung des Bundesministers für Landund Forstwirtschaft über die Begrenzung von Abwasseremissionen aus der Schlachtung und Fleischverarbeitung (AEV Fleischwirtschaft), Bundeskanzleramt d. Republik Österreich, Vienna, Austria, 1999.

Bieger, K., Hörmann, G., and Fohrer, N.: The impact of land use change in the Xiangxi Catchment (China) on water balance and sediment transport, Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0429-3, 2013. [OpenAIRE]

137 references, page 1 of 10
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publication . Other literature type . Article . 2019

A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

Christoph Schürz; Brigitta Hollosi; Christoph Matulla; Alexander Pressl; Thomas Ertl; Karsten Schulz; Bano Mehdi;