Implication of calibration period on modelling climate change impact on future runoff
Other literature type
Chiew, F. H. S.
(issn: 2199-899X, eissn: 2199-899X)
This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period
on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff. The results show
that modelled runoff and hydrologic responses can be influenced by the
choice of historical data period used to calibrate and develop the
hydrological model. Modelling approaches that do not take this into account
may therefore underestimate the range and uncertainty in future runoff
projections. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the choice of
hydrological models and consideration of calibration dataset for modelling
climate change impact on runoff is likely to be small compared to the
uncertainty in the future rainfall projections.