Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China
Article, Other literature type
Yang, X. L.
Ren, L. L.
Cheng, X. R.
Jiang, S. H.
- Publisher: Copernicus Publications
(issn: 2199-899X, eissn: 2199-899X)
GE1-350 | QE1-996.5 | Environmental sciences | Geology
Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have
exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological
environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of
climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period.
In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are
developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios
by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of
downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model
outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly,
the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to
identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The
results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a
consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed
examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the
future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region
of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.