Ability of a land surface model to predict climate induced changes in northern Russian river runoff during the 21st century
Other literature type
Nasonova, O. N.
Gusev, Y. M.
Volodin, E. M.
Kovalev, E. E.
(issn: 2199-899X, eissn: 2199-899X)
The objective of the present study is application of the land surface model
SWAP to project climate change impact on northern Russian river runoff up to
2100 using meteorological projections from the atmosphere–ocean global
climate model INMCM4.0. The study was performed for the Northern Dvina
River and the Kolyma River characterized by different climatic conditions.
The ability of both models to reproduce the observed river runoff was
investigated. To apply SWAP for hydrological projections, the robustness of
the model was evaluated. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were
calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5
prepared for the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5). For each scenario, several runoff projections were obtained using
different models (INMCM4.0 and SWAP) and different post-processing
techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data. Differences
among the runoff projections obtained for the same emission scenario and the
same period illustrate uncertainties resulted from application of different
models and bias-correcting techniques.